Important Disclaimer
This tool is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It is not financial advice, betting advice, or a recommendation to place any wager.
The probabilities generated by this tool are mathematical estimates based on user-defined inputs and publicly available data. They do not guarantee the outcome of any sporting event.
We accept no responsibility or liability for any losses, damages, or financial consequences arising from decisions made based on the information provided by this tool. All betting and gambling decisions are made entirely at your own risk.
If you choose to gamble, please do so responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, please seek help from a professional organisation.
Bayesian Probability Updates
Our engine uses Bayesian inference to update match probabilities. We start with a set of base probabilities (prior) derived from historical averages for the selected sport, then adjust them as you enable and modify individual factors.
Each factor has a likelihood ratio that expresses how much more (or less) likely a particular outcome becomes given that factor's state. When you move a slider, you're adjusting this ratio, and the probabilities are recalculated in real time using Bayes' theorem.
Factors are applied sequentially — each update takes the previous posterior as its new prior — so the order doesn't matter mathematically, but the cumulative effect of multiple factors is captured.
Factor System
Each sport comes with a curated set of factors relevant to match outcomes — for example, home advantage, recent form, injuries, and head-to-head record in football.
Factors can be enabled or disabled and adjusted along a spectrum from strongly favouring the home side to strongly favouring the away side. The impact magnitude determines how much weight that factor carries in the overall calculation.
You can create multiple scenarios with different factor configurations and compare the resulting probabilities side by side.
AI-Powered Analysis
For football matches, our AI analysis searches the latest news, team updates, and expert opinions to generate suggested factor adjustments. These suggestions are based on real-time information and can be applied to your scenario with a single click.
AI suggestions are meant as a starting point — you retain full control and can override or ignore any recommendation.
Odds Comparison
The Live Odds and Compare tabs allow you to see how your calculated probabilities stack up against market odds from bookmakers and prediction markets.
Differences between your model and market odds may indicate perceived value, but remember that bookmaker odds include a margin (overround) and reflect the collective wisdom of the market. A discrepancy does not necessarily mean the market is wrong.